Shengnong Development (002299): The industry’s prosperity continues to grow steadily
In 2019, the tight supply of chicken meat will intensify the demand growth, the price of chicken will rise significantly, the company’s integration of unique integrated industrial chain advantages and management advantages will steadily increase, and profitability will increase significantly.
Looking forward to 2020, the pig supply gap still exists. Chicken meat is the main force to supplement the animal protein gap. The high prosperity market of the broiler chicken market has continued, and we continue to strongly recommend Shengnong development!
Event: On December 9, the company released a monthly sales briefing.
In November 2019, the company sold chicken 8.
06 First, it falls by 2 every year.
98%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.
92%; realized sales income11.
5.5 billion, an increase of 18 per year.
84%, down 1 from the previous month.
The company’s sales of chicken meat have increased, mainly due to the dual effects of shortage of chicken market supply and rising demand. The industry’s prosperity has continued to increase, driving the overall price of chicken meat.
The tight supply has exacerbated the growth of demand. In 2020, the progress of the broiler industry continued to be high. Affected by the introduction and transformation in 2018, the recovery of the breeder stock was slow.
At the same time, under the background that the swine fever in Africa has not stabilized, and the pig inventory has been extended significantly, the pig supply gap is obvious.
As the main force of the protein gap in rehabilitation animals, chicken demand has increased significantly.
With tight supply and rising demand, chicken prices have risen significantly. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the average retail price of chicken meat in 36 cities across the country was 14 on November 29.
69 yuan / jin, up 24 before.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of the end of November 2019, the number of fertile sows in stock was 20 million, a decline of 34 per year.
Affected by the uncertainty and repetitiveness of the non-plague epidemic, the rate of production recovery is slow. Therefore, looking forward to next year’s supply gap for pigs, chicken is the main substitute for pork, and the broiler market will continue to boom in 2020.
During the period, the expense ratio decreased and profitability increased.In 2019, the company strengthened internal control, improved production and operation efficiency, and effectively controlled operating costs and expenses.
Financial expenses for the first three quarters1.
300 million, a decline of 24 every year.
62%; selling expenses 2.
700 million, down 7 every year.
57%; administrative expenses 1.
1.8 billion, down 7 every year.
In the future, with the company’s continuous expansion of production capacity and management efficiency, the company’s market share and performance stability will gradually increase.
Earnings forecast and estimation: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 36.
93 billion, corresponding to EPS 2.
58, give 10-12 times PE in 2020 to obtain a target price of 31.
04 yuan, the earlier current price has 30%-56% growth space, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” grade. Risk warning: Chicken meat demand declines, chicken prices rise less than 成都桑拿网 expected, sudden large-scale uncontrollable epidemic diseases, and raw material price fluctuations.