Guizhou Moutai (600519) semi-annual report comment: demand to support the long-term performance growth of approval price is highly certain
The event company released the semi-annual report for 2019, and realized operating income of 394 in the first half of 2019.880,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.24%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 199.51 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.56%.Among them, 2019Q2 achieved total operating income of 186.92 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.89%, net profit attributable to mother 87.30 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.29%. Q2 total operating income was 186.9.2 billion, net profit of 87.3 trillion, with an increase of 10.89%, 20.29%, mainly affected by the high base of 2018Q2 and the channel network carding to determine the pace of delivery confirmation (continued until June 30, the number of domestic dealers was 2415, reducing the number of dealers by 593, of which Maotai sauce wine distributors decreased by 494 However, although the growth rate is expected from the previous month, although it is slightly higher than the market expectation, it does not materially affect the performance growth target of the first-tier company.Funds received in advance for the first half of 2019 122.570,000 yuan, 青岛夜网 an increase of 23 in ten years.30%, an increase of 7 from the previous month.66%, mainly due to dealers’ advance payment.In terms of products, Maotai liquor / series liquor achieved revenue of 347.9.5 billion / 46.5.5 billion, an increase of 18.4% / 16.58%, the development of series wine is more important. The decrease in the proportion of direct sales to zero was due to the rectification of channels such as e-commerce and the plan of the group marketing company has not yet landed. From the perspective of channels, 2019H1 wholesale channel revenue was 378.4.8 billion, an increase of 22.89%, direct channel revenue 16.2 billion, down 38% before. The decline in direct sales was due to the consolidation of the e-commerce (Moutai Cloud Business) channel and the group marketing company’s program since the second half of 2018. The implementation of the direct management overall program has been implemented in the second half of 2019.Revenue is still expected to accelerate. The production and sales are in accordance with the plan, the approval price is firm, and the supply and demand are still tightly balanced. The 2019 progressive sales plan3.18 announcement, the 2019H1 statement confirms that the shipment is close to 1.6 Initially, considering that non-standard products such as boutique Moutai, Zodiac Moutai and vintage wines do not occupy the increase in the issuance of alternative products and the impact of the “national wine” trademark change, the actual circulation of Feitian Moutai is flat or slightly lower than the same period last year.The price is maintained at 2000-2100 yuan.According to the semi-annual work meeting of the Maotai Group on July 15, “We need to further strengthen plan management, reverse target tasks, conduct monthly inspections, and fill in gaps in arrears in a timely manner.The job requires long-term supply3.18 Preliminary is the basic guarantee. In terms of base wine production, the company completed base wine production in the first half of the year4.53 Initially, Moutai / series wine-based wine-based wine production3.44/1.At the beginning of 09, it increased by 13% / 20 every year.58%. Gross profit margin and net profit margin increased, companies with good operating cash flow performed well in 2019H1 gross profit margin 91.87% / net margin 53.68%, a rise of 0.93 points / 3.01pct.The period expense rate is 12.04%, a decrease of 1 per year.9pct, of which the selling / administrative expense ratio is 4.83% / 6.72%, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.41 / down 0.26 points.Mainly due to the decrease in the expenses of the Maotai liquor market.The company’s net operating cash flow in the first half of 2019 was 240.8.7 billion, an increase of 35 over the same period in 2018.82%, mainly due to the increase in cash received from the sales of commodities, increase in customer deposits and the increase in net coins deposited in the same industry. Profit forecast and estimationRealize net profit attributable to mother 426 in 2021.05/504.32/593.82 trillion, with the same increase of 21.0% / 18.4% / 17.7%, corresponding to an EPS of 33.92/40.15/47.27 yuan.Currently sustainable corresponding to 2019?The PE in 2021 is 28.5/24.1/20.5 times.The Group has a solid foundation of 100 billion yuan, and the strong trend of Pfeiffer’s demand has not changed. It has been streamlined through the group’s marketing mechanism. Against the background of short-term supply, the market’s pricing power will gradually return. The target of 14% revenue in 2019 is stable.Highly recommended. Risk reminder: The direct operation plan is less than expected, and the short-term concentrated volume caused the approval price to fall more than expected, and food safety issues.