Dongfang Cable (603606): Submarine cable business benefits from high growth of 北京桑拿洗浴保健 offshore wind power

Offshore wind power drives the outbreak of submarine cable business, and Oriental Cable’s performance is elastically constrained.

According to the NDRC’s “Notice on Improving Wind Power On-Grid Tariff Policy”, for offshore wind power projects approved before the end of 2018, if all units are connected to the grid before the end of 2021, the on-grid tariff at the time of approval will be implemented; all units will be connected to the grid by 2022 and onwards, The guide price for the year of grid connection.

We believe that if the existing generators still want to maintain the high on-grid tariffs at the time of approval, they must be connected to the grid before the end of 2021, and the installed enthusiasm for offshore wind power in the next three years is guaranteed.

Submarine Cable’s listed companies mainly include Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, and Han cable.

The total revenue of the submarine cable related businesses of the four companies reached 34 in 18 years.

800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 127%.

Among them, Dongfang Cable’s submarine cable revenue accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 35% in 18 years, benefiting from the elastic bonding of the growth of submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has a high gross profit, and the company’s performance is high.

The company’s main products are cables, including land and submarine cables.

The revenue 18 years ago was mainly contributed by the land cable business, which is relatively stable. The current increase is the submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has the characteristics of high growth and high gross profit margin.

72 ppm, a 10-year increase of 8.

03 times, gross profit margin 29.

8%, significantly higher than the traditional land cable.

Benefiting from the growth of the submarine cable business, the company’s 18-year return to motherhood profit reached 1.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 242% in ten years.

The 19-year high-performance growth momentum continued, and the semi-annual report for 19 years indicated that the company’s return to mother’s profit reached 1.

84 ‰, an increase of 227% in ten years, deducting non-profit1.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 228% in ten years.

Company orders are plentiful.

The company order amount is from 6 in 2016.

97 million rose to 23 in 2018.

9.2 billion yuan, the amount of orders from January to July 19 reached 20.

5.3 billion.

Among them, the amount of submarine cable orders in 2018 was as high as 19.

63 ppm, an increase of 49 in ten years.

51%, accounting for 82 of the total order amount.

08%, we expect the order amount will achieve a new round of growth this year and next year.

The gross profit margin is not significantly affected by the price of copper.

The company’s copper materials account for more than 70%, and raw materials have a penetrating effect on costs.

However, because the company’s business model combines forward and spot orders and locks processing fees, gross materials are not affected by raw material prices.Strong control ability.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2019-2021 will be 3.

52, 4.

43,5.

56 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

54 yuan, 0.

68 yuan, 0.85 yuan.

With reference to comparable companies, the company is given PE 20-25X in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.

80-13.

50 yuan, covering for the first time, given a “continuous market” rating.

risk warning.

Offshore wind power installed capacity was lower than expected; competition intensified and gross profit margin decreased.