Zhejiang Dingli (603338) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Growth Interference Focusing on Arm-type Product Opportunities at High Base

Zhejiang Dingli (603338) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Growth Interference Focusing on Arm-type Product Opportunities at High Base

The impact of North American tariffs is expected to be gradually digested by the market, the company’s profitability will remain high, the promotion of arm-type products will be smooth, and the growth space is still broad. The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 5.

57 and 7.

01, 8.

US $ 8.3 billion, maintain “Buy” rating.

Profitability remained high during the single quarter transition period under a high base.

The company achieved revenue 14 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4.5 billion, an increase of 9.

02%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 4.

4.4 billion, an increase of 12.

02%, realizing net profit deduction 4

1.4 billion, an increase of 15.


Achieve operating income in the third quarter alone 5.

9.7 billion, an increase of 10.

41%, net profit attributable to mothers1.

8.3 billion, down 3.


Reporting average, the company’s gross margin is 40.

85%, compared with 40 last year.

66% slightly improved, compared with 41 in the first half of 2019.

A 73% drop from the previous month may be related to factors such as tariffs and income structure in the US market, and a net interest rate of 30.

69% high stable.

In the first three quarters, the company realized a repayment of 16.

28 trillion, net operating cash flow 3.

2.9 billion, ending accounts receivable5.

680,000 yuan, compared with 6 in the middle of the year.

12 ppm is down from the previous month, and the four expense ratios total.

05%, down by 1 per year / mo.

97 and 2.

10 pieces, the overall operating ability continued to excel.

The impact of North American tariffs may gradually be digested, and the domestic market is still the focus.

During the year, the company ‘s lowest product in North America has fully considered the impact of tariffs. At present, picking up goods is gradually recovering. The market is gradually digesting the impact of tariffs. It is expected that exports from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will also form a positive hedge.

The domestic market is benefiting from the scissor margin bonus of rising labor costs and falling equipment rents, and sales are expected to continue to increase.

The company announced that it will increase the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary by US $ 100 million. It is expected that it will enhance the financial strength, financing capacity and operating capacity of the subsidiary, provide better financial leasing services to the leaser customers, and promote the company’s product sales.

Arm-type products are advancing smoothly and are expected to become new growth engines.

We visited the Asia International Aerial Work Machinery Exhibition 2019. From the perspective of grassroots discoveries, leasing customers generally report that they are very optimistic about the rental level and leasing demand of boom products, and have a good evaluation of Dingli’s new arm products.

According to the company’s WeChat public account, the company has received nearly 800 leasing companies, and the arm-type intention order has exceeded 1,000 units.

At present, the domestic arm-holding ratio accounts for less than 20%, and the penetration rate still 北京夜网 needs to continue to improve. The company’s annual investment is planned to be invested.The US $ 9.8 billion new plant is advancing smoothly and is expected to drive revenue to a new level through arm-type products.

Risk factors: Less than expected development of domestic aerial platforms, changes in the exchange rate of the RMB, gradual expansion of overseas markets, and uncertainty in trade disputes.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The impact of North American tariffs is expected to be gradually digested by the market. The company ‘s profitability remains high. Arm-type products are advancing smoothly. There is still room for growth. Considering the impact of tariffs on the US market during the year, we lowered the company’s net profit 杭州桑拿网 forecast for 2019-2021 to 5.

57 and 7.

01, 8.

8.3 billion (previous forecast was 6.

06, 7.

75, 10.

7.2 billion), corresponding to EPS 1.



54 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Asia Pacific Technology (002540): 1H19 results fell year-on-year 134%

Asia Pacific Technology (002540): 1H19 results fell year-on-year 134%

1H19 performance year-on-year decline Asia-Pacific technology announced 1H19 results: operating 合肥夜网 income of 1.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

50,000 yuan, corresponding profit 0.

12 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, basically in line with expectations. The decline in the first half of the year was mainly affected by the decline in aluminum sales.

In addition, the company plans to distribute 1 for every 10 shares.

6 yuan cash dividend, the dividend ratio is 134%, and the half-year dividend income is injected into 3.


The company’s operating income in the second quarter of 19 8.

100 million US dollars, a year of -11% / chain + 15%, net profit attributable to the mother is 7,655 million, corresponding to 0 profit.

06 yuan a year, -28% / mom + 6%.

Comments: 1) Aluminium production and sales decreased.

1H19 company’s total output of aluminum 深圳桑拿网 profiles, pipes and rods6.

8 at least, down 6 each year.

2%, sales 6.

7 At least, 9% per year.

2) Gross profit margin is basically stable.

1H19 company’s gross profit margin (gross profit before tax and surcharge) is 20.

1%, basically unchanged for a year, with a gross profit margin of 20 in 2Q19.

1%, ten years -0.

4ppt / ring ratio -0.


3) 1H19 company sales, management and R & D expenses for half a year -1.

2%, +3.

3% and + 14% to 0.

29 ppm, 0.

7.6 billion and 0.

7.6 billion.

4) The financial expenses for 1H19 were +6.56 million to 1.58 million, mainly due to the increase in discounted interest expenses on deferred bill financing.

5) 1H19 assets + credit impairment losses decreased by more than 162 million to -702 million, mainly due to the increase in bad debts of receivables and the decline in inventory price losses.

6) 1H19 change in fair value + investment income + 127% / 0.

3 billion to 0.

5.3 billion.

Development Trend Capacity continues to expand.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s total aluminum pipe, profile and bar production capacity reached 20 pieces / year.

Currently, the company is promoting 8 preliminary lightweight advanced aluminum extrusion projects, 6.

5 Initial new energy vehicle aluminum projects and 4 lightweight environmentally friendly aluminum alloy projects are expected to drive the company’s scale expansion.

It is expected to benefit from the trend of lightweight transportation.

On January 7, 2019, China’s new energy vehicle sales totaled 700,000, a year-on-year increase of 41%. The short-term growth rate may be affected by the subsidy decline, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged.

Lightweighting is an effective way to improve the life of new energy vehicles and save energy and reduce emissions. The trend of lightweighting traffic will benefit the company’s demand for aluminum products. Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We maintain our 2019/20 earnings forecasts of zero.


28 yuan.

The current sustainable correspondence is 202014.

9 times price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform rating and 6.

A target price of 00 yuan corresponds to 21.

4 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, 44 more recently included.

2% upside.

Risk Aluminum demand is less than expected, the company’s project progress is not smooth

Chongqing Beer (600132) 19th Annual Report Review: Mid-Range Forces Raise Multiple Revenues and Improve Profit

Chongqing Beer (600132) 19th Annual Report Review: Mid-Range Forces Raise Multiple Revenues and Improve Profits
I. Overview of the event On August 23, 19, Chongqing Beer released the 19-year Interim Report.At the core of the report, the company achieved revenue 18.33 trillion, +3 for ten years.92%, net profit attributable to mothers2.39 trillion, +13 for ten years.75%. Second, the analysis and judgment of mid-range products to drive 19H1 revenue growth, 19Q2 product ton price accelerated acceleration 19H1 companies to achieve revenue 18.33 trillion, +3 for ten years.92%, equivalent to Q2 single quarter revenue 9.9.9 billion, +5 in ten years.11%, the growth rate increased Q1; 19H1 achieved net profit attributable to mother 2.930,000 yuan, +13 for ten years.75%, equivalent to Q2 single quarter net profit attributable to mother 1.53 trillion, ten years +13.95%, the growth rate remained stable.In general, the company continued to make certain breakthroughs against the background of the high base in the same period last year, and both revenue and net profit attributable to the company reached a record high in H1.In terms of different products, the company’s revenue growth was mainly due to the increase in revenue of mid-range beer. Driven by the volume of Chongqing Guobin’s upgraded product “Ming Guobin” which was listed at the beginning of the year, 19H1 mid-range beer achieved revenue12.0.94 million yuan, ten years +9.63%, in addition, premium beer achieved revenue2.740,000 yuan (ten years +0.23%), low-grade beer achieved revenue 2.220,000 yuan (one year -2.98%).From the perspective of sales volume: 19H1 company achieved a total sales volume of 48.270,000 kiloliters, previously +2.27%, more than +0 at the beginning of the same period.8% level, of which 19Q2 achieved 25 sales.780,000 liters, basically flat for a year (decade -0.(04%), considering the 19Q2 rainwater merger, sluggish night market consumption, and the high-level base of the same period last year, the sales performance of 19Q2 was generally better than pessimistic expectations; from the perspective of ton price: the product structure was upgraded and promoted (19H1 middle and high-end products accounted for 87.60%, an increase of 1 over 18H1 / 17H1.2/41.45 units), 19H1 company beer ton price reached 3796.86 yuan / kilogram, ten years +1.61%, still ahead of the Tsingtao Beer 3499 yuan per thousand liter level, of which 19Q2 unit price reached 3876.66 yuan per kiloliter, +5 for ten years.15%, +4 from the previous quarter.62%, our analysis believes that it is the Q2 local brand “Alcohol State Guest” + Chongqing Pure Health and international brand “Special Carlsberg” with a significant volume. Three factors interweave and increase the gross profit margin; the five factor resonance promotes the net profit margin to increase the gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of the company in 19H1 reached 40.69%, ten years +1.28 units. Against the background of the continuous rise in prices of 无锡桑拿网 glass bottles and barley in the first half of this year, the gross profit margin increased against the trend, mainly due to the continuous optimization of product structure + falling prices of packaging materials such as corrugated paper and aluminum cans + a decrease in the increase rate;19H1 company net profit reached 14.77%, ten years +1.49%, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the proportion of revenue from asset disposal income + tax and additional revenue share and reduction in management / financial expense ratio: (1) Tax or additional revenue share or zero.36%, first of all, the continuous increase in ton price replaced the consumption tax rate, which caused the consumption tax revenue ratio to exceed -0.23%, in addition to the expected reduction in interest rates led to education revenue additional revenue accounted for twice -0.04%; (2) The overhead rate is -0 per second.37%, mainly due to the salary and remuneration of managers accounted for half a year.26%; (3) Financial expense ratio-0.27%, mainly due to the increase in interest income in the current period compared with the same period last year; (4) Revenue from asset disposal income accounted for more than +0.65%, mainly due to the company’s non-current asset disposal gains of 1131.280,000 yuan, significantly higher than -466 in the same period last year.830,000 yuan. In addition, the 19H1 selling expense rate is -0 per second.02%, of which advertising and marketing expenses revenue ratio +0.60%, transportation and handling rate is -0 per year.48%, the change in the structure of the sales expense ratio indicates that the company has further focused on the core markets of Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan (mainly Changde) in the report. In partnership with Carlsberg, the company can expect that in 2013, Chongqing Beer will become a member of the Carlsberg Group. According to Carlsberg’s commitment to avoid potential peer competition at that time, Carlsberg will be a domestic beer with potential competition with Chongqing Beer by December 2020Assets and business injected into Chongqing Beer.Carlsberg has developed well in Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Qinghai and other places, and its profitability is stronger than Chongqing Beer. Therefore, in the future, Carlsberg and the company will realize a strong alliance. The company’s profitability and market share are expected to further increase. Third, investment advice Regardless of the expected injection of Carlsberg’s assets, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 37 in 19-21.23 ppm / 40.3.5 billion / 43.41 trillion, ten years +7.4% / 8.4% / 7.6%; net profit attributable to listed companies is 4.92 ppm / 5.8.1 billion / 6.67 trillion, ten years +21.9% / 18.0% / 14.8%, equivalent to 1.02 yuan / 1.20 yuan / 1.38 yuan, corresponding to PE is 44X / 38X / 33X.The average forecast of comparable companies in 19 is 43 times, and the company’s expectation is slightly higher than that of comparable companies. Considering that the product structure upgrade is promoted during the same period, the efficiency of cost allocation is increased to cater to the existence of the joint expectation with Carlsberg. It is expected that the company’s performance growth will be faster thanComparable company average.In summary, maintain the “recommended” level. 4. Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises, new product promotion is less than expected, food safety risks, etc.

Depth-Company-Changshu Bank (601128): Profit continues to grow rapidly, asset quality is stable and sound

Depth * Company * Changshu Bank (601128): Profit continues to grow rapidly and asset quality is stable and sound

Although the expected profit and revenue growth of Changshu Bank have fluctuated slightly, the overall growth has maintained rapid growth, in line with our expectations.

In terms of interest spreads, it is expected that due to the impact of the LPR reform in the fourth quarter, it will face some pressure to narrow, but the company’s active adjustment of its credit structure will help to hedge the impact.

Changshu Bank’s NPL ratio continued to remain low, and its provision continued to lead its peers.

As a rural commercial bank featuring small and micro businesses, the company has gradually explored a distinctive risk management model for small and micro businesses, maintaining its Buy rating.

  The main points of the official rating continued to grow rapidly. It is expected that the profit margin of Changshu Bank will continue to increase rapidly in the fourth quarter under pressure, which is in line with our expectations, but the growth rate is slightly smaller than the previous three quarters.

Among them, the net profit in 2019 increased by 20 in ten 杭州夜网论坛 years.

7%, a faster growth rate than the first three quarters (+22.

4%) down about 1.

7 units.

Revenue increased by 10 at the beginning of ten years.

8%, same as the first three quarters (+11.

9%) a small value of 1.

1 unit.

The growth rate of net profit is close to the double growth of revenue and revenue, which is expected to be related to the positive support of factors such as the reduction of the provision for the company in 19 years.

Know that the company’s scale expansion accelerated in the fourth quarter, surpassing value-added10.

7% (vs3 quarter +8.

31%), an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.

38%, we expect the company’s revenue growth rate to increase, mainly due to the price factor has caused a certain drag on the growth of net interest income.

Affected by the LPR reform on the asset-side rate of return, the company ‘s interest margin in the fourth quarter may have slightly decreased.

  Credit assets continued to lean toward retail, and the asset quality was stable. The company’s negative capital value maintained a rapid growth overall, of which loans increased by 18% from the same period last month.

5% / 2.

31%, deposits increased by 19.

1% / 0.


Structurally, the allocation of corporate credit assets continued to tilt toward retail. The proportion of personal loans and personal business loans (included in personal loans) increased by 2 in the third quarter from the previous quarter.

37% and 1.

10% to 53.

8% / 34.

6%, an increase of 2 earlier.


83 tiers are good for the company’s asset-side income to remain stable.

In terms of asset quality, the company’s NPL ratio continued to remain at zero.

A low of 96%, unchanged from the third quarter in the third quarter; provision coverage increased by 14 quarter-on-quarter.

2 up to 481.

3%, the provision level continues to be at the leading level in the industry, and the company’s asset quality is stable and worry-free.

  It is estimated that as a rural commercial bank featuring small and micro businesses, the company has gradually explored a distinctive risk management model for small and micro businesses. We maintain Changshu Bank’s 20/21 net profit growth rate of 20%.

5% / 21.

4% forecast, currently the PE corresponding to 2020/21 is 10.1x / 8.

31x, PB is 1.

36x / 1.

24x, maintain BUY rating.

  The main risks facing ratings The economic downturn has caused asset quality to deteriorate more than expected.

Economic downturn regains upward momentum in overseas stock markets

Economic downturn regains upward momentum in overseas stock markets
Due to renewed worries about global economic growth, the US stock market went up and down last week. The Dow Jones Index and the S & P 500 index rose slightly. The major European stock indexes generally surged and fell last week. The major stock indexes in the Asia Pacific region showed a volatile trend.  The European Commission last week lowered its economic growth expectations for the euro zone. Growth expectations for all major economies in the euro zone have been lowered, adding to stock market investors’ offsetting sentiment against global economic growth substitution.In essence, the expected changes in the budgetary monetary policies of some important economies have also attracted much attention.  Stock market shocks In January this year, the three major US stock indexes rose more than 7%, setting the best performance in 30 years.Market participants believe that this is mainly due to the mild shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which has stimulated investor enthusiasm for admission.But since February, this enthusiasm has shown a clear cooling trend.  The Dow Jones Index fell for three consecutive trading days after rising on Monday and the second day. Last Friday (February 8), it once fell nearly 300 points and fell by 63 on the same day.27 points to 25106.26 points, a decrease of 0.25%.Last week, the Dow gradually increased to zero.17%, the S & P 500 index rose 0.05%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.47%.  As for European stock markets, the EASTOXX600 index fell 0 on February 8.56% to 358.At 07 o’clock, last week it gradually decreased by nearly 0.46%; the German DAX30 index gradually decreased by about 2 last week.At 45%, the French CAC40 index gradually decreased by about 1 last week.15%, the British FTSE 100 index last week increased by more than zero.72%.  Following the trend of the US and European stock markets, the Asia-Pacific stock market was in a volatile state and performed poorly in the second half of last week.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell more than 2% to 20,333 on February 8.At 17 o’clock, it dropped gradually 2 last week.19%; on the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday (February 8), the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened significantly lower and gradually increased by 43.89 points to 27946.32 points, a decrease of 0.16%.  Increasing uncertainties The data that have been disclosed so far show that the profitability of US listed companies in the fourth quarter of 2018 was good.But market players are interested in whether this good momentum can continue into the first quarter of this year.In addition, the previous tax reform policy introduced by the government has been implemented for one year, and the role of tax reduction in boosting corporate profits has disappeared. The profitability of US listed companies in 2019 may not be as good as in 2018.  Since the second half of 2018, the US economic growth has continued to expand and has continued to trigger investor cuts, and there are even views that the US economy will decline.According to the latest data model forecast by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the financial situation in the United States has been tightening, which may lead to a prominent economic growth rate in 2019, which may be only 1.6%, lower than the forecast of 1 in October 2018.9%.  Investors continue to pay close attention to whether the two parties in the U.S. Congress can reach a consensus on the border wall budget dispute, and the president highlighted in the president’s State of the Union address that if his proposed “wall-building” budget is not approved, it will not preclude the United StatesThe possibility of the government closing again.If the government shuts down again shortly after the door is opened, the popularity of the US stock market may be under further pressure.  The European Commission ‘s economic forecast report released on the 7th added to the distortions in the stock market.In the report, the EU lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 1.3%, lower than the forecast of 1 in developing countries.9%; lower GDP forecast for 2020 to 1.6%, lower than the forecast of 1 in developing countries.7%.The European Union warned that even with this revised growth forecast, it faces “great uncertainty.”Factors such as global economic growth and trade friction uncertainty will pose external risks to the economic outlook of the euro zone.  Partial budget policy slackened Indian imports and exports unexpectedly announced on February 7 that the benchmark repo rate was cut by 25 basis points to 6.25%, while heightening expectations lowered.The bank said that the “tightening” before the restructuring of its monetary policy stance was adjusted to “neutral”, and this interest rate cut was the bank’s first loosening of monetary policy since 南京桑拿网 August 2018.  After India fired the first shot of interest rate cuts in emerging economies, analysts believe that the risks of shifting global economic growth will increase, or more emerging economies will gradually follow up and relax monetary policy.  The US Federal Reserve also signaled a change in policy stance.On February 7th, the Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe said that global economic risks had increased and that the Australian economy may be weaker than expected.On the 8th, the bank ‘s monetary policy statement is expected to reduce Australia ‘s economic growth forecast, which will last until the financial year of June 2019 from 3.25% down to 2.At the same time, it lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2020 and hinted that the probability of future interest rate cuts will increase.  Market eyes are more 杭州桑拿 focused on the latest developments in the Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy stance.The Federal Reserve issued a statement on February 4 stating that, at the extended invitation of the US President, Fed Chairman Powell and the White House discussed recent economic developments as well as prospects for growth, employment and substitution.Powell said that monetary policy will be formulated in accordance with the Federal Reserve’s dual goals of achieving full employment and price stability.This is the first time that Powell has met with Reversal since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve in February 2018.  The information from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting at the end of January indicates that the possibility of future rate hikes has declined. At the same time, the Fed is also conducting research on plans to place balance sheets. It does not want to shrink the table to cause market turbulence.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen held on the 6th that the current reduction indicators of the US economy, if the global economic growth gradually further affects the United States, will likely cause the Fed to cut interest rates.

Dongfang Cable (603606): Submarine cable business benefits from high growth of offshore wind power

Dongfang Cable (603606): Submarine cable business benefits from high growth of 北京桑拿洗浴保健 offshore wind power

Offshore wind power drives the outbreak of submarine cable business, and Oriental Cable’s performance is elastically constrained.

According to the NDRC’s “Notice on Improving Wind Power On-Grid Tariff Policy”, for offshore wind power projects approved before the end of 2018, if all units are connected to the grid before the end of 2021, the on-grid tariff at the time of approval will be implemented; all units will be connected to the grid by 2022 and onwards, The guide price for the year of grid connection.

We believe that if the existing generators still want to maintain the high on-grid tariffs at the time of approval, they must be connected to the grid before the end of 2021, and the installed enthusiasm for offshore wind power in the next three years is guaranteed.

Submarine Cable’s listed companies mainly include Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, and Han cable.

The total revenue of the submarine cable related businesses of the four companies reached 34 in 18 years.

800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 127%.

Among them, Dongfang Cable’s submarine cable revenue accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 35% in 18 years, benefiting from the elastic bonding of the growth of submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has a high gross profit, and the company’s performance is high.

The company’s main products are cables, including land and submarine cables.

The revenue 18 years ago was mainly contributed by the land cable business, which is relatively stable. The current increase is the submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has the characteristics of high growth and high gross profit margin.

72 ppm, a 10-year increase of 8.

03 times, gross profit margin 29.

8%, significantly higher than the traditional land cable.

Benefiting from the growth of the submarine cable business, the company’s 18-year return to motherhood profit reached 1.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 242% in ten years.

The 19-year high-performance growth momentum continued, and the semi-annual report for 19 years indicated that the company’s return to mother’s profit reached 1.

84 ‰, an increase of 227% in ten years, deducting non-profit1.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 228% in ten years.

Company orders are plentiful.

The company order amount is from 6 in 2016.

97 million rose to 23 in 2018.

9.2 billion yuan, the amount of orders from January to July 19 reached 20.

5.3 billion.

Among them, the amount of submarine cable orders in 2018 was as high as 19.

63 ppm, an increase of 49 in ten years.

51%, accounting for 82 of the total order amount.

08%, we expect the order amount will achieve a new round of growth this year and next year.

The gross profit margin is not significantly affected by the price of copper.

The company’s copper materials account for more than 70%, and raw materials have a penetrating effect on costs.

However, because the company’s business model combines forward and spot orders and locks processing fees, gross materials are not affected by raw material prices.Strong control ability.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2019-2021 will be 3.

52, 4.


56 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

54 yuan, 0.

68 yuan, 0.85 yuan.

With reference to comparable companies, the company is given PE 20-25X in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.


50 yuan, covering for the first time, given a “continuous market” rating.

risk warning.

Offshore wind power installed capacity was lower than expected; competition intensified and gross profit margin decreased.

Rimage (603730) 2018 Annual Report Review: Buy!

Underestimated reverse double-click value discovery first year

Rimage (603730) 2018 Annual Report Review: Buy!

Underestimated reverse double-click value discovery first year

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and gradually realized revenue42.

73 ppm, +31 a year.

61%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 5.

580,000 yuan, at least -4.

07%, the net profit of non-returned mothers was deducted 5.

2.9 billion, -4 per year.

35%, basically in line with expectations.

We 杭州桑拿 believe that the company’s excellent margin can be benchmarked against Fuyao, Minshi, and the interior decoration field has reached a global cost advantage. 2019 will be the first year of the company’s value discovery. We will continue to recommend buying.

The bottom is about to reverse and the faucet will eventually rise.

2018 was a low point for the company’s performance, and it also formed a historic bottom. Perturbations affecting performance include: ① the exchange rate of the US dollar was low in 18H1; ② the disturbance of changes in the fair value of currency exchange derivatives; ③ the rise of raw materials;The structural gross margin has moved downwards; ⑤ Sino-US tariffs dragged down 18Q4 sales expenses; ⑥ M & A consulting fees, equity incentive costs dragged down management expenses, and ⑦ cash acquisition 深圳桑拿网 financial costs dragged down.

However, the reversal in 2019 is imminent: ① Add order 1 every year.

400 million US dollars, the highest in the past 5 years, to ensure the growth of interim results; ② category expansion logic is gradually verified, the product gradually changes from sun visor (100 yuan) → headrest armrest (400 yuan) → ceiling assembly (1,000 yuan), currentlyHeadrest and armrest products have received new orders from US-German customers, and the global model of ceiling supply has been partially reduced. ③ Profit disturbance items have been reduced or eliminated. ④ Mergers and acquisitions have gradually transformed the synergy effect, and cost reduction and efficiency have been steadily advanced. ⑤ 19-year US dollar revenueDon’t be afraid of the depreciation of the dollar.

The cost leadership pattern is optimized, and repurchase dividends show value. 2019 is the first year of value discovery.

①The company’s core cost advantage is leading the world, with deep initial integration. It has existing multi-dimensional cost reduction methods for raw material formulas, component processes, and self-made production line molds. It has built cost advantages in the field of sun visors and headrest armrests and stabilized long-term profit margins.

② Overseas misplaced competition amplifies its advantages, provides prompt and thoughtful service + China’s labor cost bonus, which makes the company unique in North America. The sun visor quickly occupied the market.

The company expects to buy back 9.71 million shares + initial dividend 0.

5 yuan, the equivalent dividend is about 4.

6 trillion, equivalent index rate reached 4.

3%, highlighting the value of the company.

Investment rating: Revise down the performance forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 7 respectively.



9 trillion, EPS is 1.



67 yuan, PE is 14.



0 times, maintain target price of 35 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: US auto market sales increase; Motus integration progress exceeds expectations

Xinhualian (000620): 19H1 performance pressured by increased financial costs, Xining project landed and continues to expand cultural and tourism landscape

Xinhualian (000620): 19H1 performance pressured by increased financial costs, Xining project landed and continues to expand cultural and tourism landscape

The company issued 19 interim reports: 1) 19H1: revenue 32.

7.1 billion / + 10.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

06 billion / -19.

1%, mainly due to the increase in management and financial costs.

Deduct non-attributed net profit -0.

35 billion / -127.

42%, net operating cash flow.

9.5 billion / + 2.

3%; 2) 19Q2: Revenue 23.

7.3 billion / + 23.

5%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

98 ppm / + 6.

6%, net of non-attributed net profit 0.

91ppm / -3.

3%, net operating cash flow.

32 ppm / -34.


The operation of the Tongguan Kiln project has boosted Hunan’s revenue and gross profit, and sales of commercial housing have grown steadily.

① In terms of different industries, the company’s 19H1 commercial housing sales achieved 19 revenue.

7.5 billion / + 9.

7%, gross margin 41.

57% /-0.

98 points; other business revenue 12.

9.5 billion / + 14.

1%, gross profit margin 8.

73% /-2.


② In terms of different regions, Beijing has realized revenue3.

53 ppm / +79.

1%, gross margin 25.

77% / + 19.

97 points; revenue of Hunan area 8.

7.2 billion / + 23.

27%, gross margin 27.

55% / + 15.

7pct; Shanghai area revenue 4.

63 ppm / -49.3%, gross margin 44.

45% /-5.

8 points; revenue from overseas areas 3.

8.4 billion / + 489.

9%, gross margin 35.

48% / + 32.

9 points.

The completion of the cultural tourism project led to increased financial costs, and short-term 19H1 performance increased pressure.

1) 19H1: Gross profit margin is 28.

6% /-1.

9pct, period cost rate is 29.

6% / + 4.

2pct, mainly due to rising financial expense ratio.

Among them, the selling expense ratio is 7.

2% /-0.

1pct, overhead cost rate 9.

0% / + 1.

0pct, financial expense ratio 13.

4% / + 3.

3pct, mainly due to the completion and delivery of cultural tourism projects, 19H1 net interest rate 3.

3% /-1.

2) 19Q2: The company’s gross profit margin is 31.

7% /-1.

4pct, the overall period cost rate is 25.

3% / + 1.


Among them, the sales expense ratio is 6.

8% / + 0.

31pct, management expense ratio 7.

2% /-0.

1pct, financial expense ratio 11.

3% / + 1.

3 points.

The cultural tourism industry is the focus of the company’s future development. The completion of the Xining Children’s Dream Park project continues to promote the expansion of the cultural tourism sector.

① Tongguanyao Ancient Town: Grand opening in August 2018, covering 5D theaters, museums, performing arts centers, hotels, inns, and other large-scale cultural tourism projects. It is a nationally preferred tourism project and a key project in Hunan Province.

The three major cultural and tourism products of the second phase have been launched in 19H1; ② The ancient town of Jiuzi has been fully opened at the end of 18 years, and the completion and delivery of the west bank have been completed.Q3 achieved the overall opening of the park; ③ Zhongzhong Ancient City: The company successfully acquired in 2018, and officially opened in early 19, ending 19H1 passenger traffic and revenue growth; ④ Xining Tongmeng Paradise: Fully launched interior and exterior installation in 18 years and 8Opened in January.

⑤ The Fairview Villa in South Korea: Approved and approved by the local council in the report merger, and has obtained the “Development Permit for the Xinhualian Fairview Village Tourism Park Project” of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province in March 2019.

⑥ Beiwai Xining International Middle School & Changsha Beiwai Yali International Middle School: The company tests the water education industry in order to realize the linkage of education, culture, tourism and other industries.

The real estate business in 19H1 has not yet obtained land due to a macro breakthrough, and will continue to serve as the company’s performance and cash flow support during the cultural and tourism conversion.In the first half of 2019, affected by the macroeconomic environment of the national macro-control policy, the company adopted regional prudent measures. During the period, it did not add any new land reserves and realized the resumed work area of 298.

50,000 square meters, 80 completed and delivered.

40,000 square meters.

The company achieved 西安耍耍网 contracted sales area of 22.

820,000 square meters, sales amount 29.

5 billion with a settlement area of 15.

740,000 square meters, with a settlement amount of 19.

7.5 billion yuan.

Taking into account the transition period of the cultural tourism project, we believe that the company’s real estate business will still provide the company with documentary performance and cash flow support in the future to achieve a stable transformation of cultural tourism.

Investment advice: Buy-A investment rating.

The company’s existing cultural and tourism projects in Jiuzi Ancient Town and Changsha Tongguan Kiln have gradually matured. Langzhong Ancient City, Xining Tourism City, and South Korea’s Jinxiu Mountain have steadily advanced. The “cultural and tourism + finance” business is expected to enter a continuous harvest period.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 2019-2021 will be 13.

7 ppm / 15.

8 ppm / 17.

90,000 yuan, EPS is 0.



94 yuan, PE is 6.

6x / 5.

7x / 5.

0x, given a 6-month target price of 5.

50 RMB.

Risk reminders: competition in the real estate market and policy uncertainty, large expenditures on cultural and tourism projects, long development cycles, less-than-expected climbing, and macroeconomic risks.

Baby-friendly Room (603214): The gross profit margin of mother-infant chain leader steadily increased, and the expected revenue growth will accelerate quarterly

Baby-friendly Room (603214): The gross profit margin of mother-infant chain leader steadily increased, and the expected revenue growth will accelerate quarterly

Key points of investment: The net profit attributable to the mother is 17.76 million yuan in 2019Q1, an increase of 46 year-on-year.

4%, faster growth than expected.

1) 19Q1 achieved income 5.

5 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

21%, net profit attributable to mothers was 17.76 million yuan, an increase of 46 year-on-year.

4%, mainly due to higher financial management income and government subsidies, deducting 14.48 million yuan in non-net profit, an annual increase of 24.


The business expanded steadily, profitability increased steadily, tax reform impacted the increase in stocking and dragged single-quarter cash flow, and overall asset quality was relatively stable.

1) The company’s profitability is improving and its gross profit margin has steadily increased.

In 1Q1, the company’s gross profit margin rose by 1 in the short term.

3pct to 26.

5%, leading to a net distance increase of 0.

7 points to 3.

6%, the company’s profitability has steadily improved.

2) The expansion of stores accelerated the current sales expense ratio, and the benefit scale effect of management expenses slightly decreased.

1Q1 sales expense ratio increased by half a year3.

2pct to 19.

9%, mainly due to the acceleration of store openings, and new stores are mainly large shopping malls, and the management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) decreased by 1.

3 points to 2.

3%, the cost is generally stable.

3) Receivables accelerate the 南京桑拿网 reduction of accounts receivable, increase the rapid expansion of stock preparation, and drag down cash flow in a single quarter.

As of 19Q1, the accounts receivable of 13.56 million yuan was 8.61 million yuan lower than the same period of the previous year, and the inventory was 5.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

8%, mainly due to the advancement of stock changes affected by the reform, dragged down net operating cash by 31.3 million yuan.

In 19Q1, it opened 1 to 224 directly-operated stores. The opening of stores in the second half of the year will accelerate, and it is optimistic that the company’s growth will accelerate quarter by quarter.

19Q1 opened 6 stores for a total of 3937 square meters, 5 closed stores for a total of 2211 square meters, mainly due to the adjustment of the channel structure. The newly opened area is significantly larger than the closed area.Prior to opening a store, it is estimated that Q1 same-store growth will be about a single digit, maintaining a better level.

Accelerated merger and opening of stores will accelerate the growth in the future.

Store sales accounted for over 90% of the revenue, and the gross profit margin of milk powder increased significantly, and the gross profit margin of various regions was stable and better.

1) In terms of business types: the gross profit margin of all items has been increased equally, and the sales revenue of stores that account for over 90% has increased significantly every year.

5% to 4.

9.8 billion, gross margin increased by 1.

41pct, e-commerce revenue was 13.46 million yuan, an increase of 84% in one year, and wholesale revenue decreased by 769 million, dragging down overall revenue growth.

2) In terms of products, the proportion of high-end products benefiting from higher gross profit margins increased, and the gross profit margin of milk powder, which accounted for nearly half of the revenue, increased significantly4.

89pct directly drives the company’s profitability.

Milk powder revenue is increasing by 18 per year.

7% up to 2.

600 million, gross margin increased by 4.

89pct to 20.5%.

Cotton textiles were affected by the adjustment of product structure, and the gross profit margin decreased for the current period3.

19pct to 39%, it is expected that the proportion of independent products will increase in the future.

3) By region: Shanghai ‘s revenue accounted for nearly half of the gross margin increase, and Zhejiang ‘s growth rate.

Shanghai’s income grows by 3 per year.

78% reached 2.

6.7 billion, from 1 to 83 net closing shops.

Zhejiang has a relatively high growth rate, with one net closing shop reaching 45 and an increase in revenue of 41.

2% amounted to 92.84 million yuan, gross margin increased by 1.

65pct to 23.

9% higher than other regions.

Jiangsu has three net stores, with an annual revenue increase of 18.

5%, Fujian stores did not adjust revenue by 20%.

The company is the only high-quality mother-infant chain target, endogenous + extension promotes accelerated exhibition, and the increase in the proportion of private brands promotes gross profit margin and maintains the level of overweight.

Starting from 19 years, the mid- to high-level equity incentives are based on 18 years, and the three-year performance target CAGR is 20%, showing development confidence.

We maintain our original profit forecast and expect net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.



12 ‰, corresponding to PE of 29/24/20 times, maintaining an overweight rating.

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be the fourth investor in the Greater Bay Area

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be the fourth investor in the Greater Bay Area
Shuipi talk show | Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be the fourth Greater Bay Area in the world!Investors began to stir up. “The Greater Bay Area” is an economic term. There are now three already formed Greater Bay Areas in the world. One is the New York Bay Area, the other is the San Francisco Bay Area, and the other is the Tokyo Bay Area. These baysBecause of the convenient waterway transportation and the accumulation of high-tech capital, the district often becomes the engine of the local and even the economy of this country. The effect is seen by everyone.  The Outline of the Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was launched in China and we are also engaged in regional development. We know the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the recent development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area approved by the State Council.If we must do the corresponding, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should correspond to the San Francisco Bay Area. We know that this is a Bay Area with technology and Silicon Valley as its core.According to the “Plan” approved by the State Council, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area also has the possibility of developing or benchmarking in this area.  The construction plan of the Greater Bay Area involves the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong and Macau. The nine cities of the Pearl River Delta are Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing.The total area of the city which is “9 + 2” is 5.60,000 square kilometers, with a total population of about 70 million at the end of 2017.  The planning of this Greater Bay Area was personally planned, deployed and promoted by General Secretary Xi Jinping. It is a national strategy and is positioned as a vibrant world-class city group.The planning is from 2022 to 2035, and the long-term is to 2035. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is regarded as the fourth growth pole of the global economy in the future, and it is of course a new practice to promote the development of “one country, two systems”.  Many cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area were originally areas with relatively strong economic development in China. According to 2017 statistics, the total GDP of the “9 + 2” cities in the Greater Bay Area has exceeded 10 billion.In the 南京桑拿网 future, “9 + 2” is definitely greater than 11.  Highlights in the “Planning Outline” The first point in the “Planning” is that it is in a relatively special area, in the context of one country, two systems, three customs zones, and three currencies.Said to be the first case.  Therefore, the “Planning” also pointed out that we must first improve transportation, strive to achieve one-hour access between major cities in the Greater Bay Area, promote public transport operations, and promote “one-ticket” joint services and “one-card” services.In addition, the financial market must be interconnected, including the wealth management market. There has been a certain response in the market. Bay local banking institutions can conduct cross-border RMB borrowing, forward foreign exchange transactions and RMB derivatives.It can also issue bonds 杭州桑拿网 to expand the cross-border investment space for Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland residents. In the future, it can also gather RMB to invest in Hong Kong’s capital market. In fact, this is an upgraded version based on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect.  In fact, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is also the place with the most A-share listed companies. According to statistics, as of February 18, 2019, there were 3,586 listed A-share companies, and 526 were registered in Guangdong cities.89 of A-share listed companies in Guangdong.6%, accounting for 14 of all A-share listed companies.67%.  As of February 18, 2019, the total market value of A shares was 48.At 84 trillion yuan, the market value of these 526 listed companies over the same period was 9.18 trillion, accounting for 18 of the total market value.79%, close to 20%.I think if we count the market value of Hong Kong and the market value of Macao, the value will be higher. Therefore, the first reaction of the introduction of “Planning” on the capital market is the ups and downs of local companies, which is inevitable.A major plus.  It is foreseeable that after the introduction of the Plan, the talents, capital, information, technology, and policies of the Greater Bay Area have an advantage that no other place has. Therefore, it will be a matter of time to become a world-class city group in the future.  ?