Jifeng shares (603997): The main business continues to explore and acquire Gramer to open up growth space

Jifeng shares (603997): The main business continues to explore and acquire Gramer to open up growth space
Years of accumulation have formed a positive cycle to help the main industry continue to develop.Jifeng is a leading domestic manufacturer 成都桑拿网 of passenger car seat headrests. It is a rare supplier of interior parts that fully covers independent, German, Japanese and American customers. Its core customers include FAW-Volkswagen, BMW Brilliance, Dongfeng Honda and other joint ventures.Auto companies, Great Wall, Geely, BYD and other independent car companies, as well as new energy car companies such as Che Hejia, Weilai, Xiaopeng, etc., and continue to develop.At present, the company has entered into the improvement of scale efficiency, opened up the positive cycle of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and the gross profit margin has remained at a high level in the industry above 30% for a long time.In 2018, the production of domestic narrowly-defined passenger cars increased by -5%. Against this background, the company still achieved 13% revenue growth, of which domestic revenue increased by 9.3%; Looking at 4Q18 alone, the domestic output growth rate was -17%, and the company’s revenue was -0.4%; operating conditions are obviously short-term industry average.Short-term net profit is affected by fair incentives, intermediary fees, etc. In 2018, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers + 3% was lower than revenue. Excluding this effect, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers managed to rise to 12%. Continuous breakthroughs in competitive management.In the short term, domestic joint ventures and independent customers continue to increase performance.At first glance, the company has global competitiveness, and it is sensitive in its growth path.Among them, the European factory has received orders for mid- to high-end products such as Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover, Porsche, BMW, Daimler, etc.The company’s overseas revenue growth rate in 2018 was 53%, mainly due to the continued mass production of European factory orders (suchClose 2.2 trillion, net profit -0.3 ppm), it is expected that with the increase in production capacity, European factories are expected to gradually reduce losses to normal profit within two years.The North American business is in continuous development. At present, it has synchronized design with Ford and GM in the United States. In the future, it will also realize localized synchronous design and supporting supply through the established American Jifeng. The acquisition of Grammer further opened up room for growth.The company’s headquarters issued an intentional plan for additional issuance (revised on October 12, 2018), and plans to issue about 3.0 billion shares (10.19 yuan / share) for 30.550,000 yuan, plus cash 0.700 million, totaling 31.2.5 billion acquisition of 100% equity of Jilin Investment, Jilin Investment holds Gramer 84.23% equity.Grammer is a global leader in commercial vehicle seating systems, and seat accessories are also one of its core businesses, with a total revenue of 18 in 2018.600 million euros, net profit 0.At 2.3 billion euros (of which 3 quarters were affected by one-time expenses such as mergers and acquisitions), at an exchange rate of 8: 1, Grammer’s 2017 revenue was 6 peaks.9 times, but the net profit margin is 1.2% is much lower than 14 of Jifeng in 2018.7%.Jifeng and Grammer’s planning of the acquisition target began three years ago. In February 2017, Jifeng shareholders and Grammer exchanged for convertible bond notes.Due to the overlap between these two business areas and the long-term acquisition plan, Jifeng’s acquisition of Grammer is significantly different from most overseas mergers and acquisitions.We believe that after the merger and acquisition, Jifeng will shift from the field of seat accessories to the more valuable commercial vehicle seat assembly field, and gradually become a cockpit system integrator, which will further open up the growth space.Refined management and improved profitability. Investment suggestion: Considering the impact of fair incentives, intermediary agencies and other expenses, we will forecast the company’s net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2020 by 3.400 million and 4.0 million is adjusted to 3.300 million and 3.9 trillion, annual growth of 8% and 21%, EPS is 0.51 yuan and 0.62 yuan, corresponding to 19X and 16 times the current PE.Assume that the additional issuance and merger is completed in 2019, the additional issuance is 30-50 trillion, and the additional issuance price is 8.0-10.0 yuan / share, Grammer’s 19-year net profit is 0.5.8 billion Euros (excluding the impact of one-time expenses and an increase of 15%), the company’s EPS is expected to be 0 after the consolidation in 2019.63-0.71 yuan, corresponding to the current PE of 13.8-15.6X.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Czech factory progress is lower than expected, supporting model sales are lower than expected, Gramer’s acquisition progress is lower than expected, and the issuance plan is adjusted.

Qianfang Technology (002373) 2018 Annual Report Review: Smart Transportation + Strong Security Growth V2X Layout Makes a Good Breakthrough

Qianfang Technology (002373) 2018 Annual Report Review: Smart Transportation + Strong Security Growth V2X Layout Makes a Good Breakthrough

Matters: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 72.

51 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

35%; Net profit 8.

$ 8.9 billion, an increase of 12 per year.

81%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

63 ppm, an increase of 63 in ten years.


  Comment: The two main 武汉夜网论坛 businesses of smart transportation + smart security grew strongly.

After the completion of the acquisition of Yushi Technology, the company’s revenue reached 18 in 18 years.

51 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.


The intelligent transportation and intelligent security sectors have developed synergistically and achieved remarkable results, of which the intelligent transportation business achieved revenue34.

93 ppm, an increase of 19 years.

40%; revenue from smart security business 36.

9.6 billion, an increase of 53 in ten years.


At the same time, the company continued to strengthen its R & D efforts in the fields of V2X and intelligent security. In 18 years, the company’s R & D staff reached 2057, with an increase of 31.

35%, R & D investment reached 6.

860,000 yuan, an annual increase of 32.


  The implementation of the benchmarking project of comprehensive urban traffic management is of great significance.

The company’s smart transportation business achieved steady growth, and the contract value of expressway and rail transit information business reached a record high.

It is worth noting that in 18 years, the company established an independent urban smart transportation sector, fully integrated into the city’s comprehensive traffic management business, achieved phased breakthroughs and breakthrough market influence, and achieved Beijing’s “Zhongguancun West District Comprehensive Traffic Management” and “Chaoyang CBD” The implementation of benchmarking projects such as “Comprehensive Transportation Management of Transportation” has laid a good foundation for the subsequent expansion of the company’s business in the field of integrated transportation management.

  The growth of smart security is strong, and the industry is further improved.

Yushi Technology continued to grow and maintain its leading position in the industry market, while overseas and channel markets maintained rapid growth.

At the end of 2018, Yushi Technology delivered products and solutions in 145 countries and regions around the world, and its market share is expected to enter the fifth place in the world.

In addition, in terms of product size, the AI product series named after China ‘s Guanshan was upgraded from “four mountains and two levels” to “six mountains and two levels” and was applied throughout the entire application. In the solution plan, “AI Ready artificial intelligence scale application plan” was released”, Achieved the large-scale deployment of AI in the security industry with the” 3 + 6 “element.

Construction of the Tongxiang Global Intelligent Manufacturing Center and Hangzhou Headquarters have started successively. It is estimated that the annual output of high-end video surveillance products will be over 10 million units.

  Accelerate the deployment of V2X technology to seize the opportunity of autonomous driving.

The company’s autonomous driving and vehicle-road collaboration research lead the industry standard. The Intelligent Vehicle Alliance Industrial Innovation Center has completed an automated driving road test mileage of more than 120,000 kilometers. V2X technology successfully passed the “three-span” connectivity test for the first time.

In the field of vehicle-road collaboration, the scale of product development based on the LTE-V standard has been expanded, and it has entered the stage of large-scale production and serialization. Vehicle-mounted units and road-side units have passed the interconnection and interoperability tests organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the model approval has been approved.The unit has passed the vehicle-level test and has provided relevant product and service conditions to complete vehicle manufacturers and partners such as Tier1.

  Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s R & D expansion in the fields of V2X, intelligent security and other areas continues to grow, we lower the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to 9 in 2019-2020.

9.4 billion, 12.

68 ppm (previous forecast was 10.

92 billion, 13.

9.4 billion), and at the same time predict that net profit attributable to mothers will be 15 in 2021.

7.4 billion US dollars, corresponding to PE is 30 times, 24 times, 19 times, with reference 夜来香体验网 to industry comparable company forecast and company historical forecast level, give the company 36 times PE in 19 years, corresponding target price is 24

06 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.  Risk warning: intensified market competition; risks in bidding and tendering for traditional business projects; and less-than-expected overseas business expansion.

Speech to the car CEO review?

Merkel denies car companies

Speech to the car CEO review?
Merkel denies car companies

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on the 7th that some media reports claim that Volkswagen and other car companies are not true. The government will not be affected by car companies in terms of decision-making and will not give speeches to car CEOsReview.

  The German “Sunday Mirror” reported that the relationship between the government and the car company in Volkswagen’s headquarters in Lower Saxony is unusual.

According to this report, the governor of Lower Saxony, Stefan Weil, is a member of the company’s supervisory board and has asked Volkswagen to revise his speech.

  A Volkswagen staff member told the Sunday Mirror newspaper that Weir wrote a criticism of Volkswagen ‘s emissions gates in a speech in October 2015, but after he submitted the speech to the Volkswagen company for review,The other party deleted a few paragraphs of criticism.

  After the speech was revised, Weir not only criticized Volkswagen’s executives in his speech, but instead said that the company was a pearl of German industry.

  This report caused public outcry.

Weir defended himself on the 7th, saying that the report was baseless.

He said: This statement is baseless, and the core part of the speech has no layout at all.

According to him, due to the severity of the emissions gate incident, he had previously given his speech to Volkswagen in order to help the other party check for facts and legal errors.

  Merkel also made a statement later on the 7th, clarifying the relationship with car companies.

Merkel 杭州桑拿 said via Democrat Ulrich Demer: The Prime Minister’s Office has never submitted a speech to an external agency for review.

  Demer also said that although the German government maintains communication with car companies and relevant equity institutions every day, there will be no incidents of car company administration.

She said: Democracy, the federal government operates very independently according to its own decision-making steps.

(Zhang Jing) (Xinhua News Agency Special) Original title: Speech to the chief reviewer of automobile companies?

Merkel denies car companies

Shouting light up the bullets, but Bin also put forward the latest point

Shouting “light up the bullets”, but Bin also put forward the latest point
Original title: Dan Bin shouting “light up the bullet”, and put forward the latest point . A shares continued to strengthen after a brief tremor!The Shanghai Composite Index once again stood at 2950 points today.  On the first trading day after the holiday, Dan Bin, chairman of Oriental Harbor, who shouted “burn the bullets,” continued to be bullish on the market outlook.He believes that the epidemic will bring a short-term impact, but in the context of policy protection and industrial upgrading, the market trend of capital markets with value stocks and growth stocks will not change.  However, Bin believes that the stock market has gradually returned to normal after a week or so of oscillation. Calibration judgments, in the context of policy protection and industrial upgrading, the market trend of capital markets with value stocks and growth stocks will not change.  In the specific sector, Oriental Harbor believes that new energy vehicles, online education and other industries will enter a period of concentrated outbreak.Among them, new energy vehicles will be a real first year in 2020, and will break out this year, driving revolutionary changes in new energy vehicles in series.  The advent of 5G will provide more space for online medical care, online education, cloud games, etc., and transform the entire society towards the direction of more economical efficiency and better services.The release was affected by the continued fermentation of the epidemic during the Spring Festival, including online entertainment in games and short videos.Data show that the day before New Year’s Eve of a certain game was as high as 2 billion.  ”Actually, the occurrence of this epidemic has a great impact on our investment logic. We may still choose industries and companies that can cross the cycle, especially every Internet technology, medicine, and new energy vehicle sector that are more concerned, orWill lead to subversive changes in the industry or even change the times.Under the epidemic, these industries have instead become beneficiaries.”But Bin said.  Dongfang Harbor is also optimistic about consumption, pig cycle and infrastructure.However, Bin believes that the consumer sector that is currently generally focused on, taking the high-end liquor industry as an example, has been less affected by the epidemic, but has increased brand concentration.Among the basic industries, the steel and cement sectors are relatively optimistic. In the future, the country may start favorable policies such as infrastructure construction. Leading companies deserve special attention.  In the large financial sector, Oriental Harbour has doubts about the securities firms, banks and other industries and is relatively optimistic about the insurance industry.But Bin said that the brokerage industry, even in the past few decades, had a good return on US stocks, but it only concentrated on four or five companies, and there were more than 130 brokerage companies in China. Whether they could achieve the concentration of several leading brokerage companies is still facing uncertaintySexuality.  Although the banking sector seems to be estimated to be very low, the characteristics of its leveraged business model still need to be observed.Many banks and brokerage industries are more optimistic about the insurance industry, especially after the epidemic, they will raise everyone’s insurance awareness to a certain extent, and there may be better results in the future.  According to the economic indicators under the influence of the epidemic, it is expected that the real estate industry will introduce favorable policies and 杭州夜网论坛 focus on leading enterprises.The chip industry that is receiving market attention is currently estimated to be particularly high and needs to pay attention to risks.  Oriental Harbor is also optimistic about the expected additional home appliance sector, and some leading companies are very competitive; at the same time, medical test, blockchain, smart home, new energy batteries, and environmental protection and other sub-sectors in key areas can also focusFollow its leading companies.  But Bin also said that the market changes after the epidemic should be considered from a far-off point of view.It is not ruled out that some industries that can recover quickly after the epidemic may have the opportunity to report a renaissance rebound. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to the changes in the industry and enterprises in the 武汉夜生活网 epidemic, focus on the changes after the epidemic.

Zhejiang Dingli (603338) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Growth Interference Focusing on Arm-type Product Opportunities at High Base

Zhejiang Dingli (603338) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Growth Interference Focusing on Arm-type Product Opportunities at High Base

The impact of North American tariffs is expected to be gradually digested by the market, the company’s profitability will remain high, the promotion of arm-type products will be smooth, and the growth space is still broad. The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 5.

57 and 7.

01, 8.

US $ 8.3 billion, maintain “Buy” rating.

Profitability remained high during the single quarter transition period under a high base.

The company achieved revenue 14 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4.5 billion, an increase of 9.

02%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 4.

4.4 billion, an increase of 12.

02%, realizing net profit deduction 4

1.4 billion, an increase of 15.


Achieve operating income in the third quarter alone 5.

9.7 billion, an increase of 10.

41%, net profit attributable to mothers1.

8.3 billion, down 3.


Reporting average, the company’s gross margin is 40.

85%, compared with 40 last year.

66% slightly improved, compared with 41 in the first half of 2019.

A 73% drop from the previous month may be related to factors such as tariffs and income structure in the US market, and a net interest rate of 30.

69% high stable.

In the first three quarters, the company realized a repayment of 16.

28 trillion, net operating cash flow 3.

2.9 billion, ending accounts receivable5.

680,000 yuan, compared with 6 in the middle of the year.

12 ppm is down from the previous month, and the four expense ratios total.

05%, down by 1 per year / mo.

97 and 2.

10 pieces, the overall operating ability continued to excel.

The impact of North American tariffs may gradually be digested, and the domestic market is still the focus.

During the year, the company ‘s lowest product in North America has fully considered the impact of tariffs. At present, picking up goods is gradually recovering. The market is gradually digesting the impact of tariffs. It is expected that exports from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will also form a positive hedge.

The domestic market is benefiting from the scissor margin bonus of rising labor costs and falling equipment rents, and sales are expected to continue to increase.

The company announced that it will increase the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary by US $ 100 million. It is expected that it will enhance the financial strength, financing capacity and operating capacity of the subsidiary, provide better financial leasing services to the leaser customers, and promote the company’s product sales.

Arm-type products are advancing smoothly and are expected to become new growth engines.

We visited the Asia International Aerial Work Machinery Exhibition 2019. From the perspective of grassroots discoveries, leasing customers generally report that they are very optimistic about the rental level and leasing demand of boom products, and have a good evaluation of Dingli’s new arm products.

According to the company’s WeChat public account, the company has received nearly 800 leasing companies, and the arm-type intention order has exceeded 1,000 units.

At present, the domestic arm-holding ratio accounts for less than 20%, and the penetration rate still 北京夜网 needs to continue to improve. The company’s annual investment is planned to be invested.The US $ 9.8 billion new plant is advancing smoothly and is expected to drive revenue to a new level through arm-type products.

Risk factors: Less than expected development of domestic aerial platforms, changes in the exchange rate of the RMB, gradual expansion of overseas markets, and uncertainty in trade disputes.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The impact of North American tariffs is expected to be gradually digested by the market. The company ‘s profitability remains high. Arm-type products are advancing smoothly. There is still room for growth. Considering the impact of tariffs on the US market during the year, we lowered the company’s net profit 杭州桑拿网 forecast for 2019-2021 to 5.

57 and 7.

01, 8.

8.3 billion (previous forecast was 6.

06, 7.

75, 10.

7.2 billion), corresponding to EPS 1.



54 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Asia Pacific Technology (002540): 1H19 results fell year-on-year 134%

Asia Pacific Technology (002540): 1H19 results fell year-on-year 134%

1H19 performance year-on-year decline Asia-Pacific technology announced 1H19 results: operating 合肥夜网 income of 1.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

50,000 yuan, corresponding profit 0.

12 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, basically in line with expectations. The decline in the first half of the year was mainly affected by the decline in aluminum sales.

In addition, the company plans to distribute 1 for every 10 shares.

6 yuan cash dividend, the dividend ratio is 134%, and the half-year dividend income is injected into 3.


The company’s operating income in the second quarter of 19 8.

100 million US dollars, a year of -11% / chain + 15%, net profit attributable to the mother is 7,655 million, corresponding to 0 profit.

06 yuan a year, -28% / mom + 6%.

Comments: 1) Aluminium production and sales decreased.

1H19 company’s total output of aluminum 深圳桑拿网 profiles, pipes and rods6.

8 at least, down 6 each year.

2%, sales 6.

7 At least, 9% per year.

2) Gross profit margin is basically stable.

1H19 company’s gross profit margin (gross profit before tax and surcharge) is 20.

1%, basically unchanged for a year, with a gross profit margin of 20 in 2Q19.

1%, ten years -0.

4ppt / ring ratio -0.


3) 1H19 company sales, management and R & D expenses for half a year -1.

2%, +3.

3% and + 14% to 0.

29 ppm, 0.

7.6 billion and 0.

7.6 billion.

4) The financial expenses for 1H19 were +6.56 million to 1.58 million, mainly due to the increase in discounted interest expenses on deferred bill financing.

5) 1H19 assets + credit impairment losses decreased by more than 162 million to -702 million, mainly due to the increase in bad debts of receivables and the decline in inventory price losses.

6) 1H19 change in fair value + investment income + 127% / 0.

3 billion to 0.

5.3 billion.

Development Trend Capacity continues to expand.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s total aluminum pipe, profile and bar production capacity reached 20 pieces / year.

Currently, the company is promoting 8 preliminary lightweight advanced aluminum extrusion projects, 6.

5 Initial new energy vehicle aluminum projects and 4 lightweight environmentally friendly aluminum alloy projects are expected to drive the company’s scale expansion.

It is expected to benefit from the trend of lightweight transportation.

On January 7, 2019, China’s new energy vehicle sales totaled 700,000, a year-on-year increase of 41%. The short-term growth rate may be affected by the subsidy decline, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged.

Lightweighting is an effective way to improve the life of new energy vehicles and save energy and reduce emissions. The trend of lightweighting traffic will benefit the company’s demand for aluminum products. Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We maintain our 2019/20 earnings forecasts of zero.


28 yuan.

The current sustainable correspondence is 202014.

9 times price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform rating and 6.

A target price of 00 yuan corresponds to 21.

4 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, 44 more recently included.

2% upside.

Risk Aluminum demand is less than expected, the company’s project progress is not smooth

Chongqing Beer (600132) 19th Annual Report Review: Mid-Range Forces Raise Multiple Revenues and Improve Profit

Chongqing Beer (600132) 19th Annual Report Review: Mid-Range Forces Raise Multiple Revenues and Improve Profits
I. Overview of the event On August 23, 19, Chongqing Beer released the 19-year Interim Report.At the core of the report, the company achieved revenue 18.33 trillion, +3 for ten years.92%, net profit attributable to mothers2.39 trillion, +13 for ten years.75%. Second, the analysis and judgment of mid-range products to drive 19H1 revenue growth, 19Q2 product ton price accelerated acceleration 19H1 companies to achieve revenue 18.33 trillion, +3 for ten years.92%, equivalent to Q2 single quarter revenue 9.9.9 billion, +5 in ten years.11%, the growth rate increased Q1; 19H1 achieved net profit attributable to mother 2.930,000 yuan, +13 for ten years.75%, equivalent to Q2 single quarter net profit attributable to mother 1.53 trillion, ten years +13.95%, the growth rate remained stable.In general, the company continued to make certain breakthroughs against the background of the high base in the same period last year, and both revenue and net profit attributable to the company reached a record high in H1.In terms of different products, the company’s revenue growth was mainly due to the increase in revenue of mid-range beer. Driven by the volume of Chongqing Guobin’s upgraded product “Ming Guobin” which was listed at the beginning of the year, 19H1 mid-range beer achieved revenue12.0.94 million yuan, ten years +9.63%, in addition, premium beer achieved revenue2.740,000 yuan (ten years +0.23%), low-grade beer achieved revenue 2.220,000 yuan (one year -2.98%).From the perspective of sales volume: 19H1 company achieved a total sales volume of 48.270,000 kiloliters, previously +2.27%, more than +0 at the beginning of the same period.8% level, of which 19Q2 achieved 25 sales.780,000 liters, basically flat for a year (decade -0.(04%), considering the 19Q2 rainwater merger, sluggish night market consumption, and the high-level base of the same period last year, the sales performance of 19Q2 was generally better than pessimistic expectations; from the perspective of ton price: the product structure was upgraded and promoted (19H1 middle and high-end products accounted for 87.60%, an increase of 1 over 18H1 / 17H1.2/41.45 units), 19H1 company beer ton price reached 3796.86 yuan / kilogram, ten years +1.61%, still ahead of the Tsingtao Beer 3499 yuan per thousand liter level, of which 19Q2 unit price reached 3876.66 yuan per kiloliter, +5 for ten years.15%, +4 from the previous quarter.62%, our analysis believes that it is the Q2 local brand “Alcohol State Guest” + Chongqing Pure Health and international brand “Special Carlsberg” with a significant volume. Three factors interweave and increase the gross profit margin; the five factor resonance promotes the net profit margin to increase the gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of the company in 19H1 reached 40.69%, ten years +1.28 units. Against the background of the continuous rise in prices of 无锡桑拿网 glass bottles and barley in the first half of this year, the gross profit margin increased against the trend, mainly due to the continuous optimization of product structure + falling prices of packaging materials such as corrugated paper and aluminum cans + a decrease in the increase rate;19H1 company net profit reached 14.77%, ten years +1.49%, mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the proportion of revenue from asset disposal income + tax and additional revenue share and reduction in management / financial expense ratio: (1) Tax or additional revenue share or zero.36%, first of all, the continuous increase in ton price replaced the consumption tax rate, which caused the consumption tax revenue ratio to exceed -0.23%, in addition to the expected reduction in interest rates led to education revenue additional revenue accounted for twice -0.04%; (2) The overhead rate is -0 per second.37%, mainly due to the salary and remuneration of managers accounted for half a year.26%; (3) Financial expense ratio-0.27%, mainly due to the increase in interest income in the current period compared with the same period last year; (4) Revenue from asset disposal income accounted for more than +0.65%, mainly due to the company’s non-current asset disposal gains of 1131.280,000 yuan, significantly higher than -466 in the same period last year.830,000 yuan. In addition, the 19H1 selling expense rate is -0 per second.02%, of which advertising and marketing expenses revenue ratio +0.60%, transportation and handling rate is -0 per year.48%, the change in the structure of the sales expense ratio indicates that the company has further focused on the core markets of Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan (mainly Changde) in the report. In partnership with Carlsberg, the company can expect that in 2013, Chongqing Beer will become a member of the Carlsberg Group. According to Carlsberg’s commitment to avoid potential peer competition at that time, Carlsberg will be a domestic beer with potential competition with Chongqing Beer by December 2020Assets and business injected into Chongqing Beer.Carlsberg has developed well in Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Qinghai and other places, and its profitability is stronger than Chongqing Beer. Therefore, in the future, Carlsberg and the company will realize a strong alliance. The company’s profitability and market share are expected to further increase. Third, investment advice Regardless of the expected injection of Carlsberg’s assets, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 37 in 19-21.23 ppm / 40.3.5 billion / 43.41 trillion, ten years +7.4% / 8.4% / 7.6%; net profit attributable to listed companies is 4.92 ppm / 5.8.1 billion / 6.67 trillion, ten years +21.9% / 18.0% / 14.8%, equivalent to 1.02 yuan / 1.20 yuan / 1.38 yuan, corresponding to PE is 44X / 38X / 33X.The average forecast of comparable companies in 19 is 43 times, and the company’s expectation is slightly higher than that of comparable companies. Considering that the product structure upgrade is promoted during the same period, the efficiency of cost allocation is increased to cater to the existence of the joint expectation with Carlsberg. It is expected that the company’s performance growth will be faster thanComparable company average.In summary, maintain the “recommended” level. 4. Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises, new product promotion is less than expected, food safety risks, etc.

Depth-Company-Changshu Bank (601128): Profit continues to grow rapidly, asset quality is stable and sound

Depth * Company * Changshu Bank (601128): Profit continues to grow rapidly and asset quality is stable and sound

Although the expected profit and revenue growth of Changshu Bank have fluctuated slightly, the overall growth has maintained rapid growth, in line with our expectations.

In terms of interest spreads, it is expected that due to the impact of the LPR reform in the fourth quarter, it will face some pressure to narrow, but the company’s active adjustment of its credit structure will help to hedge the impact.

Changshu Bank’s NPL ratio continued to remain low, and its provision continued to lead its peers.

As a rural commercial bank featuring small and micro businesses, the company has gradually explored a distinctive risk management model for small and micro businesses, maintaining its Buy rating.

  The main points of the official rating continued to grow rapidly. It is expected that the profit margin of Changshu Bank will continue to increase rapidly in the fourth quarter under pressure, which is in line with our expectations, but the growth rate is slightly smaller than the previous three quarters.

Among them, the net profit in 2019 increased by 20 in ten 杭州夜网论坛 years.

7%, a faster growth rate than the first three quarters (+22.

4%) down about 1.

7 units.

Revenue increased by 10 at the beginning of ten years.

8%, same as the first three quarters (+11.

9%) a small value of 1.

1 unit.

The growth rate of net profit is close to the double growth of revenue and revenue, which is expected to be related to the positive support of factors such as the reduction of the provision for the company in 19 years.

Know that the company’s scale expansion accelerated in the fourth quarter, surpassing value-added10.

7% (vs3 quarter +8.

31%), an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.

38%, we expect the company’s revenue growth rate to increase, mainly due to the price factor has caused a certain drag on the growth of net interest income.

Affected by the LPR reform on the asset-side rate of return, the company ‘s interest margin in the fourth quarter may have slightly decreased.

  Credit assets continued to lean toward retail, and the asset quality was stable. The company’s negative capital value maintained a rapid growth overall, of which loans increased by 18% from the same period last month.

5% / 2.

31%, deposits increased by 19.

1% / 0.


Structurally, the allocation of corporate credit assets continued to tilt toward retail. The proportion of personal loans and personal business loans (included in personal loans) increased by 2 in the third quarter from the previous quarter.

37% and 1.

10% to 53.

8% / 34.

6%, an increase of 2 earlier.


83 tiers are good for the company’s asset-side income to remain stable.

In terms of asset quality, the company’s NPL ratio continued to remain at zero.

A low of 96%, unchanged from the third quarter in the third quarter; provision coverage increased by 14 quarter-on-quarter.

2 up to 481.

3%, the provision level continues to be at the leading level in the industry, and the company’s asset quality is stable and worry-free.

  It is estimated that as a rural commercial bank featuring small and micro businesses, the company has gradually explored a distinctive risk management model for small and micro businesses. We maintain Changshu Bank’s 20/21 net profit growth rate of 20%.

5% / 21.

4% forecast, currently the PE corresponding to 2020/21 is 10.1x / 8.

31x, PB is 1.

36x / 1.

24x, maintain BUY rating.

  The main risks facing ratings The economic downturn has caused asset quality to deteriorate more than expected.

Economic downturn regains upward momentum in overseas stock markets

Economic downturn regains upward momentum in overseas stock markets
Due to renewed worries about global economic growth, the US stock market went up and down last week. The Dow Jones Index and the S & P 500 index rose slightly. The major European stock indexes generally surged and fell last week. The major stock indexes in the Asia Pacific region showed a volatile trend.  The European Commission last week lowered its economic growth expectations for the euro zone. Growth expectations for all major economies in the euro zone have been lowered, adding to stock market investors’ offsetting sentiment against global economic growth substitution.In essence, the expected changes in the budgetary monetary policies of some important economies have also attracted much attention.  Stock market shocks In January this year, the three major US stock indexes rose more than 7%, setting the best performance in 30 years.Market participants believe that this is mainly due to the mild shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which has stimulated investor enthusiasm for admission.But since February, this enthusiasm has shown a clear cooling trend.  The Dow Jones Index fell for three consecutive trading days after rising on Monday and the second day. Last Friday (February 8), it once fell nearly 300 points and fell by 63 on the same day.27 points to 25106.26 points, a decrease of 0.25%.Last week, the Dow gradually increased to zero.17%, the S & P 500 index rose 0.05%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.47%.  As for European stock markets, the EASTOXX600 index fell 0 on February 8.56% to 358.At 07 o’clock, last week it gradually decreased by nearly 0.46%; the German DAX30 index gradually decreased by about 2 last week.At 45%, the French CAC40 index gradually decreased by about 1 last week.15%, the British FTSE 100 index last week increased by more than zero.72%.  Following the trend of the US and European stock markets, the Asia-Pacific stock market was in a volatile state and performed poorly in the second half of last week.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell more than 2% to 20,333 on February 8.At 17 o’clock, it dropped gradually 2 last week.19%; on the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday (February 8), the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened significantly lower and gradually increased by 43.89 points to 27946.32 points, a decrease of 0.16%.  Increasing uncertainties The data that have been disclosed so far show that the profitability of US listed companies in the fourth quarter of 2018 was good.But market players are interested in whether this good momentum can continue into the first quarter of this year.In addition, the previous tax reform policy introduced by the government has been implemented for one year, and the role of tax reduction in boosting corporate profits has disappeared. The profitability of US listed companies in 2019 may not be as good as in 2018.  Since the second half of 2018, the US economic growth has continued to expand and has continued to trigger investor cuts, and there are even views that the US economy will decline.According to the latest data model forecast by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the financial situation in the United States has been tightening, which may lead to a prominent economic growth rate in 2019, which may be only 1.6%, lower than the forecast of 1 in October 2018.9%.  Investors continue to pay close attention to whether the two parties in the U.S. Congress can reach a consensus on the border wall budget dispute, and the president highlighted in the president’s State of the Union address that if his proposed “wall-building” budget is not approved, it will not preclude the United StatesThe possibility of the government closing again.If the government shuts down again shortly after the door is opened, the popularity of the US stock market may be under further pressure.  The European Commission ‘s economic forecast report released on the 7th added to the distortions in the stock market.In the report, the EU lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 1.3%, lower than the forecast of 1 in developing countries.9%; lower GDP forecast for 2020 to 1.6%, lower than the forecast of 1 in developing countries.7%.The European Union warned that even with this revised growth forecast, it faces “great uncertainty.”Factors such as global economic growth and trade friction uncertainty will pose external risks to the economic outlook of the euro zone.  Partial budget policy slackened Indian imports and exports unexpectedly announced on February 7 that the benchmark repo rate was cut by 25 basis points to 6.25%, while heightening expectations lowered.The bank said that the “tightening” before the restructuring of its monetary policy stance was adjusted to “neutral”, and this interest rate cut was the bank’s first loosening of monetary policy since 南京桑拿网 August 2018.  After India fired the first shot of interest rate cuts in emerging economies, analysts believe that the risks of shifting global economic growth will increase, or more emerging economies will gradually follow up and relax monetary policy.  The US Federal Reserve also signaled a change in policy stance.On February 7th, the Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Lowe said that global economic risks had increased and that the Australian economy may be weaker than expected.On the 8th, the bank ‘s monetary policy statement is expected to reduce Australia ‘s economic growth forecast, which will last until the financial year of June 2019 from 3.25% down to 2.At the same time, it lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2020 and hinted that the probability of future interest rate cuts will increase.  Market eyes are more 杭州桑拿 focused on the latest developments in the Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy stance.The Federal Reserve issued a statement on February 4 stating that, at the extended invitation of the US President, Fed Chairman Powell and the White House discussed recent economic developments as well as prospects for growth, employment and substitution.Powell said that monetary policy will be formulated in accordance with the Federal Reserve’s dual goals of achieving full employment and price stability.This is the first time that Powell has met with Reversal since he became chairman of the Federal Reserve in February 2018.  The information from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting at the end of January indicates that the possibility of future rate hikes has declined. At the same time, the Fed is also conducting research on plans to place balance sheets. It does not want to shrink the table to cause market turbulence.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen held on the 6th that the current reduction indicators of the US economy, if the global economic growth gradually further affects the United States, will likely cause the Fed to cut interest rates.

Dongfang Cable (603606): Submarine cable business benefits from high growth of offshore wind power

Dongfang Cable (603606): Submarine cable business benefits from high growth of 北京桑拿洗浴保健 offshore wind power

Offshore wind power drives the outbreak of submarine cable business, and Oriental Cable’s performance is elastically constrained.

According to the NDRC’s “Notice on Improving Wind Power On-Grid Tariff Policy”, for offshore wind power projects approved before the end of 2018, if all units are connected to the grid before the end of 2021, the on-grid tariff at the time of approval will be implemented; all units will be connected to the grid by 2022 and onwards, The guide price for the year of grid connection.

We believe that if the existing generators still want to maintain the high on-grid tariffs at the time of approval, they must be connected to the grid before the end of 2021, and the installed enthusiasm for offshore wind power in the next three years is guaranteed.

Submarine Cable’s listed companies mainly include Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optoelectronics, and Han cable.

The total revenue of the submarine cable related businesses of the four companies reached 34 in 18 years.

800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 127%.

Among them, Dongfang Cable’s submarine cable revenue accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 35% in 18 years, benefiting from the elastic bonding of the growth of submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has a high gross profit, and the company’s performance is high.

The company’s main products are cables, including land and submarine cables.

The revenue 18 years ago was mainly contributed by the land cable business, which is relatively stable. The current increase is the submarine cable business.

The submarine cable business has the characteristics of high growth and high gross profit margin.

72 ppm, a 10-year increase of 8.

03 times, gross profit margin 29.

8%, significantly higher than the traditional land cable.

Benefiting from the growth of the submarine cable business, the company’s 18-year return to motherhood profit reached 1.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 242% in ten years.

The 19-year high-performance growth momentum continued, and the semi-annual report for 19 years indicated that the company’s return to mother’s profit reached 1.

84 ‰, an increase of 227% in ten years, deducting non-profit1.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 228% in ten years.

Company orders are plentiful.

The company order amount is from 6 in 2016.

97 million rose to 23 in 2018.

9.2 billion yuan, the amount of orders from January to July 19 reached 20.

5.3 billion.

Among them, the amount of submarine cable orders in 2018 was as high as 19.

63 ppm, an increase of 49 in ten years.

51%, accounting for 82 of the total order amount.

08%, we expect the order amount will achieve a new round of growth this year and next year.

The gross profit margin is not significantly affected by the price of copper.

The company’s copper materials account for more than 70%, and raw materials have a penetrating effect on costs.

However, because the company’s business model combines forward and spot orders and locks processing fees, gross materials are not affected by raw material prices.Strong control ability.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2019-2021 will be 3.

52, 4.


56 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

54 yuan, 0.

68 yuan, 0.85 yuan.

With reference to comparable companies, the company is given PE 20-25X in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 10.


50 yuan, covering for the first time, given a “continuous market” rating.

risk warning.

Offshore wind power installed capacity was lower than expected; competition intensified and gross profit margin decreased.